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Many Catalysts Can Wreck The QE-Inspired Bubble
Does the stock market care about the after-tax profits generated by corporations? Not in the era of Federal Reserve QE (a.k.a. “quantitative easing,” “balance sheet expansion” or “electronic money...
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Here’s Why You Need To Hedge Your Stock Investments
Stock market records have a way of enthralling everyone. However, the stock market is not currently reflecting the economy or the corporate backdrop. For example, one may hear that the job market is...
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3 Ways To Invest In Stocks (Even When The Ride Is Coming To An End)
The U.S. economy is appallingly dependent on the “wealth effect.” And the U.S. Federal Reserve knows it. Just how “easy” is the Fed’s monetary policy? The real Fed Funds Rate (FFR) is at -0.8% right...
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From Here To The Election: Total Returns For Treasury Bonds Will Trump Stocks
Can you force credit on those who are not necessarily asking for it? Even at ultra-low rates? Consider homebuyers. Mortgage rates are dramatically lower than they were a year ago. Regardless, the...
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Why Dividend ETFs, REIT ETFs and Low Volatility ETFs Still Work
Many investors are aware that the current economic expansion is the longest in U.S. history. 10 years and six months. Some believe that the growth does not need to end. Ever. They quip, “Economic...
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CEOs, IPOs and Market Complacency
One year ago, investors learned that there’s a limit to how high interest rates could climb on Federal Reserve tightening before the stock market would collapse. Mercifully, the Fed reversed course and...
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2020 Election: More Than Another Brick In The Wall Of Worry
Near the bottom of the 2008 financial collapse, many investors convinced themselves that Barack Obama’s left-leaning ideology would only make things worse for the stock market. They were wrong. Indeed,...
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Large U.S. Stocks May Be Underestimating the Worldwide Manufacturing Recession
Global manufacturing data have been exceedingly grim. One would be hard-pressed to find a country in Europe, Asia or North America that is exporting products with little difficulty. If the United...
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This Is Your Market. This Is Your Market On Drugs. Any Questions?
An authoritative figure pulls a chicken egg from a carton. He holds the egg up for the television viewer to see. “This is your brain,” he announces. Then he points to a frying pan and says, “This is...
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The Stock Market Bear That Began 19 Months Ago
Mainstream pundits have been telling stock investors throughout 2019 that it does not matter if long maturity Treasury bonds yield less than short maturity Treasury bonds. They have been explaining...
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Riskier Assets Are Looking To Get Their ‘Fix’
In last week’s commentary, I wrote the following: “So how will stocks, bonds and other assets respond to the Fed decision? I believe that the Fed will under-deliver, effectively disappointing growth...
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How Will You Keep the Stock Wealth That You Created?
Bond yields have been collapsing clear across the world. And if history is any guide, the rapid decline is a function of undeniable economic weakness. Consider the correlation between bond yields and...
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The Last Ones To Add More Stock Risk Will Have Rotten Nest Eggs
U.S. large company stocks may be celebrating the anticipation of rate cuts. After all, the S&P 500 has been toying with record highs. Yet a broader view demonstrates that the asset class is...
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Stock Market Rally: You May Be Right, I May Be Crazy
According to Jay Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy is performing well. It is difficult to take the assessment seriously. After all, as recently as mid-December, the Fed intended...
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July Rate Cut? Wait For the Fed’s Complete Capitulation To Get Aggressive
Financial markets now anticipate that the Federal Reserve will begin ratcheting down rates from the 2.25%-2.50% range in July. Remarkably, the “de facto stimulus” associated with the Fed flip from rate...
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Buy The Dip In Long-Term Treasury Bonds To Hedge Stocks?
The 10-year Treasury yield pays 15 basis points LESS than the 3-month Treasury yield. That’s rather nutty when you think about it. Even nuttier? 30-year sovereign yields across the globe are LOWER than...
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What The Bond Market And Real Estate Market Are Telling Investors
Trade wars. Tariffs. Trump. One might think that the “Ts” are solely responsible for financial market volatility. In truth, a wider variety of cross-currents are at work. Some have been bubbling up for...
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Here’s What Will Cause The Next Recession (Part 2)
Each of the last three recessions contained elements of extraordinary financial instability. For example, Savings & Loan (S&L) institutions used federally insured deposits to make reckless real...
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Here’s What Will Cause The Next Recession
Financial professionals frequently opine that asset prices are a function of economic conditions. Assets like stocks, bonds and real estate rise in value when the economy is expanding. They fall in...
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All-Time Stock Highs: Why Modest Risk-Renting Will Outshine Extreme Risk-Taking
There has been a great deal of media hype surrounding new all-time highs in the U.S. stock market. For that matter, there has been a fair amount of puffery when it comes to how well stocks are...
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